Solved: The mystery of the missing Simpsons episodes
Sarah had been complaining that MythTV hadn't recorded an episode of The Simpsons in months. It was indeed strange, as you could see that it was going to record episodes if you looked at the upcoming recordings.
The other night we happened to be watching some recorded TV around the time an episode was scheduled to be recorded, and sure enough, it started recording one.
When we finished watching what we were watching, the episode had vanished. I didn't think I'd seen anything relevant to auto-expiry in the logs for the backend.
A few days later, another episode was recorded. We even watched it. It disappeared afterwards.
I was sufficiently curious at this point as to what was going on. It turned out that way back in the distant past when I set up MythTV, I misunderstood what "recording groups" were. When I set up recordings of throw-away things like the news, I created a recording group called "Short retention", assuming I could go somewhere else and make stuff in that group get expired quicker than stuff in the "Default" recording group.
(Incidentally, I only in the last few months discovered the veritable cornucopia of things that you can do from the recordings listing screen when you press the Menu/M button on the remote/keyboard. The recording groups now make much more sense)
I think there's the word "storage" somewhere in the user-interface around this area, which may have been what confused me. Turns out that I never went and tried to set this mythical expiry policy up, because that's not how auto-expiry works. The choices (as of 0.20) are "Oldest show first", "Lowest priority first" and some sort of weighted combination of the two.
It turns out that I had it configured for "Lowest priority first", and The Simpsons had the lowest priority of all TV shows, so that it'd always lose out in the event of any scheduling conflicts.
The SAN's perpetually full, so it's always auto-expiring stuff, and The Simpsons are what get expired first by this policy. Kinda funny really.
So I switched the policy around to the weight combination of priority and age, and now it's going to auto-expire recordings from a year ago. Hooray.